Value betting explained – how to identify profitable odds and beat the market

Value betting is one of the most important concepts in sports betting — and the foundation of every long-term profitable strategy. While most beginners focus on trying to predict the winner, successful bettors focus on something far more powerful: identifying when the odds are higher than they should be.
In this guide, we explain what value betting is, how it works, how bookmakers calculate their prices, and how you can recognise profitable opportunities across Bet365, 1xBet, 22Bet, 20Bet, Ivibet and other major betting sites.

1. What Is Value Betting?

Value betting is the practice of placing bets only when the odds offered by the bookmaker are higher than the true probability of the outcome.
In other words:

Value appears when the bookmaker underestimates the real chance of something happening.

Most casual bettors ask: “Who will win?”
Value bettors ask: “Are the odds higher than they should be?”

For example:

• If you estimate that Team A has a 60% chance of winning
• but the bookmaker’s odds imply only 50%
• then you have found value

You will not win every bet — but value betting consistently in such situations leads to long-term profit.

2. How Bookmakers Set Their Odds

To understand value, you must first understand how odds are created.

Bookmakers such as Bet365, 1xBet, 22Bet or 20Bet do not simply guess the probability. Their odds are based on:

• statistical models
• historical data
• player and team information
• market behaviour
• risk balancing
• margins added for profit

A “fair” price represents a true probability. A bookmaker price includes a margin — which is why odds are slightly lower than the fair probability would suggest.

For example, if a fair price is 2.00 (50% probability), a bookmaker may offer 1.91 to include their margin.

Value betting takes advantage of situations where bookmakers’ models are imperfect or slow to adjust.

3. Understanding Implied Probability

Before you can find value, you must know the implied probability behind odds.

For decimal odds:

Implied probability = 1 ÷ odds × 100

Examples:

• Odds 2.00 → 50%
• Odds 1.50 → 66.67%
• Odds 4.00 → 25%

Value exists when:

Your estimated probability > bookmaker’s implied probability

This rule guides every value betting decision.

4. Why Value Betting Works (Even If You Lose Many Bets)

Value betting is not about winning every time — it is about making profitable decisions over hundreds of bets.

Imagine you flip a coin, and the bookmaker offers odds of 2.20 on heads.
The true probability is 50%, but the odds imply 45.45%.
If you place this bet every time, you will make money long-term even if you lose many individual bets.

The same principle applies to football, tennis, basketball and all sports.

Professional bettors do not chase “sure wins”; they chase mathematical advantage.

5. How to Estimate the True Probability

This is the hardest part of value betting — and what separates skilled bettors from beginners.

To estimate probability, you can use:

5.1 Statistical models

• expected goals (xG)
• Poisson models
• regression models
• rating systems such as ELO

5.2 Historical performance

• head-to-head results
• home/away form
• scoring patterns

5.3 Team news

• injuries
• suspensions
• rotation
• lineup changes

5.4 Motivation and context

• importance of the match
• tournament format
• travel fatigue

5.5 Market analysis

Tracking odds on Bet365, 1xBet, 22Bet, 20Bet and Ivibet can indicate whether the market agrees or disagrees with your estimate.

Good probability estimation is a skill that improves with practice, not luck.

6. Examples of Value Betting in Action

Example 1: A favourite with misleading odds

Your estimate for Team A to win: 70%
Bookmaker odds: 1.80

Implied probability = 1 ÷ 1.80 × 100 = 55.56%
Your estimate (70%) is higher → value exists.

Example 2: An underdog priced too high

Your estimate for Team B to win: 30%
Bookmaker odds: 4.50

Implied probability = 1 ÷ 4.50 × 100 = 22.22%
Your estimate is higher → value exists.

Value betting does not care whether a team is favourite or underdog — only whether the price is wrong.

7. Misconceptions About Value Betting

Many bettors misunderstand value betting. Common myths include:

Myth 1: Value betting means betting on underdogs

Incorrect. Value can exist on favourites or underdogs.

Myth 2: Value bets win more often

Not necessarily — value bets can lose frequently, but the long-term edge makes them profitable.

Myth 3: You need perfect predictions

You only need to be slightly better than the bookmaker or market.

Myth 4: Value appears often

True value is rare — which is why disciplined bettors wait for the right moment.

8. What Causes Value to Appear?

Value can appear for multiple reasons:

8.1 Slow reaction to team news

Bookmakers adjust quickly, but not instantly.
If you see news earlier than the market, you may find value.

8.2 Public bias

Public money often overvalues favourites or popular teams, creating inflated odds on the other side.

8.3 Overreaction to recent results

Teams are often overpriced after a big win or underpriced after a bad result.

8.4 Market inefficiencies

Smaller leagues and niche sports often have less accurate pricing.

8.5 Line movement

If you understand how odds move on Bet365, 1xBet, 20Bet and others, you can predict when the price is temporarily inflated.

9. Bankroll Management in Value Betting

Even the best value bettor will experience losing streaks. That is why bankroll management is essential.

Recommended strategies include:

• staking a small percentage (1–3%) of your bankroll
• avoiding emotional changes to stake size
• tracking bets over time
• keeping consistent stake sizing (flat staking or proportional staking)

Value betting is powerful only when combined with discipline.

10. Tools and Techniques Used by Professional Value Bettors

Professionals often combine:

10.1 Statistical software

Python models, spreadsheets, prediction algorithms.

10.2 Odds comparison platforms

Comparing Bet365, 1xBet, 22Bet, 20Bet, Ivibet and others to find the highest price.

10.3 Closing line value (CLV) tracking

Monitoring whether the odds move in your favour before kickoff — a strong indicator of profitability.

10.4 Automated alerts

Notifications when odds drift temporarily.

Value betting is a blend of data analysis, discipline and market understanding.

11. Value Betting vs Arbitrage Betting

These two concepts are often confused.

Arbitrage betting

• guarantees profit
• requires betting on all outcomes across different bookmakers
• often leads to limits or bans

Value betting

• focuses on finding mispriced odds
• does not guarantee profit in each bet
• but is sustainable, realistic and used by professionals

Arbitrage is short-term; value betting is long-term.

12. The Role of Closing Line Value (CLV)

One of the strongest indicators of success is beating the closing line — the final odds before the match starts.

If your bet was placed at higher odds than the closing line, it means:

• the market moved in your favour
• your analysis was likely correct
• you identified real value

Professional bettors use CLV as a measure of skill.

13. Common Mistakes in Value Betting

Even advanced bettors make errors:

• relying only on intuition
• overestimating probability
• chasing losses
• staking too much
• ignoring market movement
• betting on too many matches
• not tracking data

Value betting requires discipline as much as it requires analysis.

14. Summary

Value betting is not a trick — it is a long-term strategy built on mathematics, probability and discipline.
It teaches bettors to stop guessing and start analysing, to stop chasing winners and start chasing profitable odds.
Whether you bet with Bet365, 1xBet, 22Bet, 20Bet, 20Bet or Ivibet, understanding value is the single most important step toward becoming a smarter and more successful bettor.
You will not win every bet — but with value betting, you can win the long game.

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